Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
