Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
